Nashville Auto Accident Lawyer Reviews Report On Older Driver Highway Safety
Older Driver Crash Projections
As an experienced Tennessee automobile accident attorney I have watched with interest as the accident rate among older drivers has continued to drop. Since 1997 the trend has been on a downward slide. I asked myself, “…why is this happening?” One would think that older drivers would have more problems as they aged. With that in mind I wondered out loud to several of my colleagues, “Wha tis going to happen to this trend in the next six to ten years when the older population, the “Boomers”, grows?”
My search took me to The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s highways. In a recent study the Institute answered my question. Instead of interpreting the study for you I have reprinted the introduction below.
TRENDS IN OLDER DRIVER CRASH INVOLVEMENTS
The US population is expected to experience a major shift such that older people will become a much larger proportion of the population. According to the US Census Bureau (2008a), people 70 and older were 8.5 percent of the population in 1990, compared with 9.1 percent in 2008. The increase in the older population is expected to accelerate sharply starting in 2016. The population 70 and older is expected to rise from 27 million in 2008 to 67 million in 2050, representing a 145 percent increase. The population 85 and older is expected to more than triple, from 6.4 million in 2008 to 19 million in 2050. By 2050, people 70 and older are expected to compose 15.3 percent of the population (US Census Bureau, 2008b).
As older people become a larger part of the population, they are driving more as well. The number of licensed drivers 70 and older is expected to continue to increase, and there are indications that older drivers are logging more miles. According to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the total annual miles traveled by drivers 70 and older increased by 26 percent between 1995-96 and 2001-02, from 92 to 116 billion miles, and their average annual miles traveled increased by 48 percent from about 6,064 to 9,000 miles (FHWA, 1995, 2001).
There is concern about the potential effect on traffic safety associated with these trends. For example, Lyman et al. (2002) predicted a 155 percent increase in fatal crash involvements and a 178 percent increase in all police-reported crash involvements of drivers 65 and older during 1999-2030.
The role of aging in crash risk is complex. As people age, deterioration of visual, cognitive, perceptual, and physical functions may increase their likelihood to be involved in traffic crashes (Dewar, 2002; Goode et al., 1998; McDowd and Shaw, 2000; Owsley et al., 1998; Stutts et al., 1998; Sims et al., 2001). Age-related increases in fragility mean that when older drivers are involved in crashes, they are more likely to be seriously injured or killed from their injuries (Evans, 1991; Li et al., 2003; Meuleners et al., 2006; Zhou et al., 1996). In 2008, 63 percent of the deaths in the fatal crashes of drivers 70 and older were the older drivers themselves; another 12 percent were older passengers of the older drivers.
The increased driving among older people in the United States, coupled with their fragility, suggests that older driver crash involvements, including those involving fatality or serious injury, should have increased in recent years. However, Cheung et al. (2008) reported that passenger vehicle fatal crash involvements among people 70 and older declined during 1997-2006. Further, relative to drivers aged 35-54, the fatal crash rate per population and per licensed driver declined at a significantly faster pace for drivers 70 and older; the largest decline was experienced by drivers 80 and older. According to the authors, the reasons for the steep decline in older driver fatal crash rates were not clear.
Using a series of empirical models to estimate the probability of an older driver’s decision to drive, annual average number of miles driven, and crash risk, Hu et al. (2000) projected that older driver fatal crash risk per miles traveled would decrease during 2000-25. The authors attributed this prediction to a projected increase in seat belt use and greater affluence among older drivers, allowing them to drive safer vehicles.
In seeking to understand the stronger decline in fatal crash rates among older drivers relative to middle-age drivers, one possibility is that older drivers are less likely to be involved in crashes. Another is that they are better able to survive crashes. The current study explores these possibilities by looking more closely at recent trends in crashes of all severities. Specifically, first the study by Cheung et al. (2008) was updated by examining national trends in fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver for drivers 70 and older, relative to those for drivers age 35-54, for the period 1997-2008. Next, trends in involvement rates for crashes of all severities were examined for older and middle-age drivers using police-reported crash data from 13 states for the period 1997-2005. Finally, changes in the odds that a crash-involved older driver would sustain a fatal injury were examined relative to the odds for a middle-age driver. Analyses began with 1997 because crash deaths of older people in the United States peaked in 1997 after trending generally upward since 1975.
If you or a loved is injured or killed in a Tennessee automobile accident caused by an elderly driver contact the experienced Nashville automobile accident lawyers at Phillip Miller & Associates and take advantage of a free consultation to determine your rights and remedies.
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